🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."